Files

I. The Topology of Quiet

The Topology of Quiet collects six REGNIS working papers from the first half of 2026 into a single 96-page volume, bound by one method — de-exceptionalisation — applied to France, the euro area, Russia, North Korea, China, and finally to the threat-assessment industry itself. Each study refuses the question it is usually asked — when will it collapse, what does it intend, how long can it last — and replaces it with a structural one, reporting where its own model breaks rather than where it confirms. Across all six, a single finding recurs: the system is quiet not because it is safe but because it is sub-critical, and that quiet is precisely what dissolves the will to act while action is still cheap. A closing note draws the six hazards into one consolidated position, the de-dollarisation tail they share and the gold-and-franc residual haven that hedges it. The papers are analytical models, not investment or policy advice; their outputs are scenario-conditional structural propositions, and every transition window is an interval dominated by institutional parameters, not a forecast of a date.

II. The Arithmetic of the Borrowed Calm

The Arithmetic of the Borrowed Calm reduces modern sovereign finance to a single state equation — debt against capacity, governed by interest minus growth minus inflation, net of repayment — and shows every instrument, from rollover to the inflation tax, is one term within it. Calibrated to live mid-2026 data, it refuses the usual question — is it a Ponzi, when does it collapse — for a structural one: not whether the system fails but how it survives, and onto whom it offloads the cost. The answer recurs at every scale: the system never repays, it transfers, and the quiet that looks like solvency is the silent taxation of savers. Three hostile schools — Austrian, Domar, Minsky — are fused into the equation, the falsified textbook account dismantled, and the US maturity wall coupled to the French demographic wall to find a shared ~2033 of orthogonal causes — before a game-theoretic close shows the drift toward debased money is no policy failure but the equilibrium of the game itself, escapable only by growth. A formal appendix, Congealed Time, derives the whole pattern from four axioms, closing the volume's method in its most compressed form.